Inverness Chamber of Commerce brought together members, business leaders and partners this week for two engaging events in partnership with Royal Bank of Scotland, exploring the political and economic issues that are impacting businesses across the Highlands.
A Roundtable Dinner on Wednesday (26 May) evening was followed by the Chamber’s latest Business Breakfast on Thursday (27 May) morning, creating opportunities for members to hear expert insight, share experiences and discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the region’s economy.
Political Landscape and Business Confidence
Royal Bank policy and corporate affairs expert Elliot Roy and senior economist Marcus Wright led discussions on the rapidly changing political landscape across the UK and Scotland, and what this could mean for business confidence, investment and long-term planning.
Members heard how the decline of the traditional two-party system and increasingly fragmented politics could lead to more hung parliaments and shorter-term policymaking, creating challenges for long-term infrastructure investment and economic certainty.
Discussion around Scotland’s political outlook explored the SNP’s election performance, the impact of a fragmented opposition, and what a Parliament with a significant number of new MSPs could mean for future spending priorities and legislation.
Global Pressures and Economic Outlook
A significant focus of the discussions centred on the geopolitical climate and instability in the Middle East, particularly the potential impact of the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of the world’s hydrocarbons.
Marcus highlighted that while energy markets are under pressure, current conditions are not expected to mirror the scale of disruption experienced in 2022. Members heard that gas prices remain below 2022 levels and changing global supply patterns are helping soften some immediate impacts on oil prices.
However, there was recognition that these measures can only be used for a limited time period and that continued disruption, beyond a couple of months, would be likely to impact oil prices and increase inflation beyond the shocks that are now baked into the rest of 2026 and early 2027.
Royal Bank’s expert predictions suggested inflation could rise towards 4% rather than the previously expected 2%, with slower economic growth anticipated through 2026. Discussions also explored the possibility of future interest rate increases, tighter consumer spending and continued pressure on food prices. However, while these are the most likely scenarios it was also emphasised that it was hard to predict Iran’s reactions so all these measures could be impacted even harder.
Opportunities for the Highlands
Despite wider economic challenges, there was strong recognition of the Highlands’ unique strengths and opportunities, particularly around energy transition, innovation and supporting future workforce development.
Members also discussed the importance of housing, planning and infrastructure in supporting long-term economic growth across the region, alongside the Highlands’ continued resilience in sectors including hospitality and tourism.
Supporting Highland Businesses
Inverness Chamber CEO Colin Marr said, “These events gave a real in-depth view of the current state of the Scottish, UK and geo-political changes that are impacting Highland businesses – from fuel prices, energy transition, labour markets and cost of living.
“It was important for members to hear not only the challenges businesses may face over the coming months, but also the wider context behind some of the predictions around inflation, consumer spending and economic growth.
“While there are clearly pressures within the global economy and concerns around ongoing instability in the Middle East, it was also reassuring to hear that experts do not currently expect a repeat of the scale of disruption experienced in 2022.
“One of the Chamber’s key roles is ensuring our members have opportunities to hear directly from experts, understand the wider issues impacting the economy and contribute to the conversations shaping the future of business in the Highlands.”
Garry Munro, Director Highlands & Islands Commercial Mid-Market, Royal Bank of Scotland said, “It is great to be able to support events like these and share our insights with local businesses. We are grateful to the Inverness Chamber of Commerce for giving us the opportunity to engage with their members and discuss the impacts that national economic and political trends are having on our local area.”
The events formed part of Inverness Chamber’s ongoing programme of business engagement activities designed to support members, strengthen connections and provide insight into the issues affecting businesses locally, nationally and internationally.
Businesses interested in attending future events and discussions can view the Chamber’s upcoming programme at: https://inverness-chamber.co.uk/events/